It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
As per Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
