Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
